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US pips UAE as Kenya's exports growth engine
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer attends a Senate Finance Committee hearing to testify on US President Donald Trump's trade policy, on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC on April 8, 2025.
The United States has emerged as Kenya's fastest-growing major export market, cushioning overseas sales from a drop in demand from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as exporters brace for tougher US trade rules.
Analysis of official data shows earnings from exports to the US jumped 32.3 percent to Sh32.56 billion in the first four months of 2026, marking the largest increase among Kenya's key destination markets.
This came at a time exports to the UAE plunged 39.5 percent to Sh13.85 billion, erasing Sh9.05 billion in export earnings, according to the latest provisional data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).
Overall, Kenya’s export earnings rose by 8.8 percent to Sh406.74 billion between January and April,2026. The US contributed nearly a quarter of the Sh32.85 billion increase, underlining its growing importance to Kenya's export sector.
The figures point to an emerging shift in Kenya's export markets this year, with stronger demand from the world’s largest economy helping offset weakness in one of the country's fastest-growing Gulf markets.
Exposed to higher tariffs
The export rebound followed reinstatement of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) in February after months of disruption. The programme had lapsed on September 30, 2025, leaving Kenyan exports exposed to higher tariffs.
Between October and January, manufacturers said shipments attracted duties of between 15 and 42 percent, disrupting orders and squeezing margins.
This included a 10 percent reciprocal tariff that the Trump administration imposed on Kenyan exports in August 2025.
Kenya has exported goods, mainly apparel, macadamia nuts, tea, coffee and fresh produce, to the US duty- and quota-free under Agoa since 2000. The programme supports tens of thousands of jobs in export processing zones, largely in Athi River and Thika.
Although the US parliament renewed Agoa this year, lawmakers shortened the extension from three years initially passed by the House of Representatives to one year in changes by the Senate.
Developed-market destination
The one-year extension means Agoa will expire again in December unless Congress renews it, leaving exporters facing another round of uncertainty over access to Kenya's largest developed-market destination.
The short extension also signaled a policy shift by Washington, with the US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer saying future trade arrangements would place greater emphasis on reciprocity and expanded market access for American businesses.
"Agoa for the 21st century must demand more from our trading partners and yield more market access for US businesses, farmers and ranchers," Mr Greer said after President Trump signed the legislation into law.
He said the administration would work with Congress to modernise Agoa in line with President Trump's America First Trade Policy while strengthening US-Africa commercial ties.
Mr Greer’s office in April invited public comments on reforming Agoa, signaling that the current model of unilateral trade preferences for African countries will be reviewed.
