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Kenya exports to UAE hit 33-month low on Iran war
Workers package flowers at the Xflora Group as exporters face high costs of freight amid disruptions in the Middle East, which were caused by the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, after US President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, in Njoro, Nakuru County, Kenya on April 8, 2026.
Kenya's exports to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) fell to their lowest level in nearly three years in April, amid a raging US-Israel war with Iran that disrupted one of the country’s fastest-growing markets.
Fresh data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that Kenya's exports to the UAE stood at Sh2.95 billion in April 2026, the weakest monthly performance since July 2023, when shipments were valued at Sh2.73 billion.
The latest figure, which marks a 33-month low, comes at a time when there is still tension in the Gulf region despite a recent ceasefire between the US and Iran.
The UAE has emerged as a critical destination for Kenyan exports in recent years, with the Gulf state becoming a major buyer of meat products, tea, fruits, vegetables, and flowers.
The conflict in the Middle East has dealt a blow to Kenyan exporters, with traders warning that disruptions in maritime transport have delayed shipments and raised logistics costs.
Kenya has been battling renewed inflationary pressure for nearly three months now after the US-Israel war with Iran disrupted importation of key items, including petroleum products.
The conflict, which first started on February 28, affected activities on the Strait of Hormuz, a global chokepoint serving as an artery for 20 percent of the world’s total oil supply and 30 percent of the world’s maritime trade.
Shipping and logistics remain the lifeblood of Kenya's trade with the Middle East, as most agricultural products are transported through maritime routes crossing the Red Sea and the Gulf region.
The UAE has been one of the biggest openings following Kenya's efforts to diversify its export markets beyond traditional destinations in Europe and North America.
Trade ties between Nairobi and Abu Dhabi have deepened in recent years, culminating in the signing of a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) last year as part of efforts aimed at lowering barriers and boosting bilateral trade.
The agreement was part of a broader push by President William Ruto’s administration to position the Gulf region as a key destination for Kenyan exports and investments.
The UAE has been one of President Ruto’s most frequently visited destinations since taking office in September 2022, with State House officials saying the trips were aimed at unlocking trade and investment doors.
The Gulf nation has become an increasingly important buyer of Kenyan tea, avocados, vegetables, and livestock products as demand from the region continues to rise.
UAE's role extends beyond direct consumption as Dubai also serves as a major re-export hub, with Kenyan products finding their way into the wider Middle Eastern and Asian markets.
Before the war, Kenyan exporters had turned to the UAE as an alternative market amid weaker demand in some traditional destinations and growing competition in Europe.
Any escalation in regional conflict raises insurance costs, extends shipping timelines, and introduces uncertainty for exporters dealing in perishable commodities, as delays in transportation can translate into lost markets and lower earnings.
The decline in exports comes at a time when Kenya is relying heavily on external markets to support foreign exchange earnings and narrow its trade deficit.
Agricultural exports remain one of the country's biggest sources of foreign currency and play a key role in supporting the value of the local currency.
