Kenya’s expenditure on rice imports exceeded wheat for the first time in 2025 after the government opened a controversial duty-free import window to avert shortages, underscoring the country’s growing reliance on foreign supplies to meet rising demand.
The latest Economic Survey shows that Kenya’s rice import bill stood at Sh55.11 billion in 2025, overtaking the Sh41.73 billion spent on unmilled wheat and marking a historic reversal in the country’s cereal import profile.
The crossover in import spending was driven largely by a drop in wheat import costs following a decline in global prices. Kenya’s wheat import bill fell by 51.3 percent from Sh85.73 billion in 2024 despite volumes dipping only marginally by 3.4 percent to 2.24 million tonnes.
Rice imports, by contrast, remained relatively expensive. Although the rice import bill declined by 18.8 percent from Sh67.85 billion in 2024 to Sh55.11 billion in 2025, the drop was far smaller than that recorded for wheat. Rice import volumes also fell by 12.6 percent to 785,930 tonnes, the data collated by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics show.
The disparity reflects diverging global price movements for the two commodities. Average wheat import prices nearly halved to about Sh18,700 per tonne in 2025 from about Sh37,000 a year earlier. Rice prices, on the other hand, eased more gradually, declining by about 7.1 percent to around Sh70,100 per tonne from Sh75,400.
As a result, Kenya spent substantially more on rice despite importing nearly three times more wheat by volume, underlining the cost burden associated with the rice grain. This came in a year Kenyan traders imported at least 250,000 tonnes of duty-free rice after the government temporarily waived import taxes to ease supply pressures in the local market.
The National Treasury had initially authorised the duty-free importation of 500,000 tonnes of Grade 1 milled white rice between July and December 2025.
However, the Kerugoya High Court suspended the original Gazette notice following a petition by farmers, who argued the imports would trigger rice dumping and depress local earnings.
The court later capped the imports at 250,000 metric tonnes and ordered that the shipments be brought into the country by October 31, 2025, instead of the earlier December 31 deadline.
Without duty waivers, Kenya levies a 35 percent duty or $200 (Sh25,840) per metric tonne on rice imports after successfully securing a stay on applications under the East African Community’s Common External Tariff framework at 75 percent.
Analysis of KNBS numbers indicate rice import spending has more than doubled from Sh26.78 billion in 2017, reflecting steadily rising demand, particularly in urban areas where changing lifestyles and convenience foods are changing eating habits.
Wheat import expenditure, meanwhile, has remained relatively flat over the same period despite sharp year-to-year fluctuations, edging down by 1.6 percent between 2017 and 2025.
Domestic production trends further expose Kenya’s increasing reliance on external markets.
Data in the 2026 Economic Survey shows rice paddy production increased by 6.4 percent in 2024/25, supported by a 5.3 percent expansion in cropped area to 48,379 hectares across irrigation schemes. Production rose to 285,439 tonnes during the period.
“Taveta and Bura irrigation schemes saw the highest increases in rice paddy production, with 25.5 thousand tonnes and 14.1 thousand tonnes, respectively, in 2024/25, compared to 19.0 thousand tonnes and 11.8 thousand tonnes in 2023/24,” KNBS wrote in the economic Survey.
Despite the gains, local production remains far below national demand, forcing Kenya to continue relying heavily on imports.
Wheat production also declined, falling by 18.2 percent to 254,900 tonnes in 2025 from 311,800 tonnes the previous year and remaining below the 2020 peak of 405,000 tonnes.
The drop highlights persistent structural constraints facing local farmers, including high input costs and limited suitable land.
Unlike wheat, which Kenya sources from a relatively diversified pool of exporters, rice imports are heavily concentrated in Asian markets such as Pakistan, India and Vietnam. The concentration leaves the country more exposed to supply disruptions, export restrictions and currency fluctuations.
The duty on wheat imports currently stands at 10 percent, reduced from the standard 35 percent under the East African Community Common External Tariff regime.
