Maize imports rebounded sharply in 2025 following the government’s decision to open a duty-free window for yellow maize, underscoring the country’s continued reliance on external supply to stabilise food and feed markets.
Latest data from the 2026 Economic Survey shows maize imports jumped by 51.4 percent to 468,109 metric tonnes in 2025, reversing two consecutive years of decline and marking one of the strongest annual increases in recent years.
The data shows traders spent Sh13.17 billion to ship maize into the country in 2025, a 30.6 percent increase from Sh10.08 billion in 2024.
The import bill, however, remained below the peaks of Sh23.21 billion in 2023 and Sh24.70 billion in 2022, reflecting the earlier drop in volumes and easing global prices.
The jump in import volumes came in a year Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe authorised the duty-free importation of 5.5 million bags of yellow maize for animal feed production.
The policy intervention was aimed at cooling rising prices driven by competition between millers producing flour for human consumption and manufacturers of animal feed.
“The Ministry of Agriculture notes the growing competition between animal feed millers and maize millers for human consumption over the limited maize grain stocks available in the country. As a result of this increasing demand, the price of a 90-kg of maize has risen by approximately 26 percent compared to three months ago,” he said.
The policy shift allowed shipments of non-GMO yellow maize from outside the seven-nation East African Community trading bloc, which would ordinarily attract a punitive 50 percent duty.
Agriculture ministry officials argued that diverting animal feed manufacturers to yellow maize would ease pressure on white maize, the staple used for human consumption, and help stabilise the cost of unga.
“The objective is to reduce pressure on local white maize stocks by shifting animal feed millers to yellow maize. This will allow millers focused on human consumption to access available maize at fairer prices, ultimately leading to reduced production costs and more stable unga prices for consumers,” Mr Kagwe added.
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics data suggests the policy had an impact on import volumes as domestic production showed only marginal improvement.
Maize output rose slightly by 2.2 percent to 45.8 million bags in 2025 from 44.8 million bags the previous year, indicating that local supply gains were insufficient to meet growing demand from both households and industry.
The rebound in imports also highlights the volatility of Kenya’s maize trade. After peaking at nearly 794,000 tonnes in 2022, imports dropped by 36 percent in 2023 and a further 39 percent in 2024, before surging again in 2025.
The duty-free importation of yellow maize was seen as a targeted attempt to address structural pressure in the market, where animal feed producers have increasingly competed with food millers for limited white maize supplies.
However, the sharp rebound in imports raises questions about the sustainability of Kenya’s food security strategy as the country continues to increasingly depend on external markets to balance supply gaps.
While the policy may ease short-term price pressures, especially on unga, it also reinforces the structural challenge of boosting local maize production to consistently meet national demand.
With output largely plateauing in the mid-40 million, 90-kilogramme bag range in recent years, the data suggests that without productivity gains, Kenya is likely to remain exposed to import-driven market adjustments.
In 2023, for example, when production bumped by 39 percent to 47.6 million bags, imports remained historically high at 507,932.50 tonnes, indicating that higher output alone does not eliminate the need for external supply.
Instead, imports continue to act as a buffer against structural inefficiencies, including post-harvest losses, high input costs and distribution challenges.
The volatility of Kenya’s maize trade further underscores this dependence. Imports surged to a record 793,751 tonnes in 2022, then dropped by 36 percent in 2023 and 39 percent in 2024, before rebounding sharply in 2025.
