Kenya is renewing the push to open up its mineral sector to global investors, looking to position itself as a significant player in the fast-evolving global race for critical resources.
However, beneath the ambitious tendering lies a complex mix of opportunity, uncertainty, and policy ambition that could ultimately determine whether the initiative succeeds or stalls.
The government, through the Ministry of Mining, Blue Economy and Maritime Affairs, has simultaneously offered multiple mineral blocks to investors, signalling a shift from a historically slow-moving sector to an aggressive commercialisation drive.
The requests for expressions of interest (EOIs) cover chromite in Samburu, rare earth elements and niobium in Kwale, copper in Tharaka Nithi, manganese in Tana River, and coltan in Embu counties.
The push to commercialise Kenya’s underground resources centres on a policy reset that began in October 2023, when President William Ruto's administration initially classified 14 minerals as strategic.
The move was part of the conditions for lifting a four-year moratorium on the issuance of prospecting, mining, and trading licences imposed in December 2019, effectively reopening the sector to investors under a tighter regulatory oversight.
Strategic minerals are under the Mining (Strategic Minerals) Regulations, 2017, defined as those essential to Kenya’s economic, technological, or national security interests. The list of strategic minerals features cobalt, graphite, copper, tantalum, lithium, niobium, coltan, nickel, tin, and radioactive minerals such as uranium and thorium, alongside rare earth elements and chromite.
Tsavorite—one of the country’s most prized gemstones— was initially classified as a critical mineral before this rule was temporarily relaxed last year on grounds that “the National Mining Corporation …as currently structured does not have plans to deal” with the mineral, also referred to as green garnet.
“The government, having declared strategic minerals in October 2023, continues to engage investors interested in exploring for these minerals on a one-by-one basis,” Harry Kimtai said in an earlier interview.
“The capacity of the National Mining Corporation continues to be enhanced as the country races toward full exploitation of its abundant mineral resources.”
The classification of minerals aligns the country with a global shift where countries are seeking to secure supply chains for minerals critical to clean energy technologies, electronics, and advanced manufacturing.
But unlike more established mining jurisdictions, Kenya is attempting to fast-track its entry into this space with little geological certainty in some of the minerals on offer.
A closer reading of the tender documents reveals that some of the projects being marketed to investors are at an early exploration stage, with no defined resource estimates.
The Mining ministry, for example, states that the manganese project at Lali Hills in Tana River “is a greenfield prospect whose resource has not been estimated”.
In the Kiritiri coltan project in Embu, the ministry acknowledges that “the current study was not sufficient to produce figures that would define a resource or a reserve; however, sufficient data exist to support the widespread occurrence of coltan in this area”.
"This is further supported by continuous artisanal mining of coltan that has taken place in this area for a long time,” the ministry says in the render documents.
These disclosures highlight an effort to transfer early-stage exploration risk to private investors, while leveraging global demand for strategic minerals to attract capital.
This strategy creates a high-risk, high-reward proposition for investors because early entry into underexplored regions can yield significant returns if commercial deposits are confirmed. However, the absence of reliable resource estimates increases uncertainty, lengthens project timelines, and raises capital requirements.
The risk profile is further compounded by the government’s policy stance on value addition and state participation.
Across all five tenders, bidders are required to demonstrate the “ability to design and commission start-to-end on-site processing and beneficiation plant,” effectively ruling out business models based on raw mineral exports. The requirement reflects a shift toward domestic industrialisation, aimed at capturing more value within Kenya’s economy.
Prospective investors in the mining blocks must also show a “clear understanding of Kenya laws on free carry interest [non-dilutable equity share given to the government], and State involvement on strategic minerals,” signalling that the government intends to retain a stake in these projects.
Such provisions are common in resource-rich countries, but critics argue they can sometimes complicate investment decisions, particularly when combined with little geological certainty. The challenge for companies will lie in balancing the potential upside of untapped resources against regulatory obligations and long-term capital commitments.
The tenders also emphasise environmental and social governance. Prospective firms will be required to demonstrate experience operating in “fragile ecosystems” and commit to measurable interventions such as land rehabilitation and water management.
This reflects the geographical reality of many of the project sites, including parts of Samburu County and Tana River County, where ecosystems are sensitive, and communities have historically had limited exposure to large-scale mining.
The requirement for community engagement— which ensures that “social and economic benefits are shared”—also points to lessons drawn from past extractive projects, where local opposition has often emerged over perceived inequities.
A key pillar underpinning the current tender round is a multibillion-shilling airborne geophysical survey conducted during the administration of former President Uhuru Kenyatta. Launched in 2018, the exercise tapped young professionals under the supervision of a National Intelligence Service-led security team to map the country’s mineral wealth amid concerns that sensitive data could fall into foreign private hands.
The findings of the survey were handed over to Mr Kenyatta in June 2022, three months before he left office, covering 96.5 percent of Kenya’s land mass and 56 percent of its water mass. The scale of the exercise marked one of the most comprehensive attempts to document the country’s underground resources.
Since then, geologists and geochemists from the ministry have extended the work on the ground, covering more than 30 counties to confirm mineral occurrences and assess their extent in an ongoing verification process. The study was commissioned as part of broader reforms aimed at attracting foreign investors using empirical geological data.
Despite more than 50 years of mining activity, the sector’s large-scale activities have remained marginal, largely confined to soda ash, mineral sands, and titanium ores in Kwale, which were depleted in 2024.
This is despite the country being widely believed to host significant deposits of copper, niobium, gold, manganese, and rare earth minerals that remain largely untapped, limiting the sector’s contribution to the economy. The sector’s potential is estimated at more than $6.6 billion (about Sh858 billion), suggesting considerable room for growth if these resources are successfully developed.
