I estimate that in another decade, the Central corridor through Tanzania will be the dominant regional transit route, having overtaken Mombasa based Northen corridor.
The shift started when the 2007/08 electoral disturbances in Kenya significantly disrupted movement of imports and exports through Kenya, prompting Uganda, Rwanda, and DRC to develop alternative transit capacity through Dar Es Salaam.
Tanzania had already modernised the main highway from Dar to Mwanza, Bukoba and also to Rwanda border permitting smooth road haulage.
With only one border crossing, high-quality highways, lower transit time and costs, Rwanda decided to shift most of its petroleum and other imports from Kenya to Dar. Uganda similarly started using Dar as an alternative import route via Mwanza and around the Lake through Mutukula.
Tanzania has been quick in embracing modern electric driven SGR and a modernised Dar port as long-term strategies to modernise Central Corridor infrastructure with outreach to Rwanda, Burundi, DRC and Uganda.
The SGR has already reached the capital Dodoma on its way to Mwanza and Kigoma with planned future extensions to Rwanda and Burundi providing easy access to DRC.
The next game-changing opportunity that Tanzania grabbed was the crude oil export pipeline project from western Uganda through Tanzania. Kenya had wrongly believed that Uganda had no option but to use the Lappset transit route through Lamu.
Kenya inadvertently refused to consider the more secure alternative route proposed by Uganda to use existing Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) wayleave all the way to Mombasa, with a pipeline branch from Turkana joining at Eldoret.
The joint pact to jointly implement and own the crude oil pipeline has opened up major economic and diplomatic cooperation opportunities between Uganda and Tanzania. Already massive FDIs, skills development and jobs for the two countries are happening.
A road transit conduit from Dar through Mutukula border point into Uganda and Eastern DRC is already happening. With deep economic cooperation between Uganda and Tanzania, the recent decision by Uganda to shift a fraction of oil imports from Kenya to Dar was an easy one.
It is not too late for Kenya to revert to sustainable long term infrastructure planning and implementation.
On the minimum we need to extend SGR and oil pipeline to Malaba. We should also ensure we control South Sudan transit trade by focusing on enhancing transit security through Turkana.
Lappset highway infrastructure should be completed to secure Southern Ethiopia and South Sudan trade. Turkana oil should be commercialized without further delay. Finally, we should manage our political decorum to minimize disruptive violence.
