Kenya’s coffee industry is at a decisive inflection point. Domestic consumption is rapidly increasing, with the Agriculture and Food Authority indicating that coffee houses have risen from just 14 in 2022 to more than 800 in 2026.
The government and other industry players are also targeting the growing global market by aiming to increase production to a projected 150,000 tonnes annually over the next few years.
This effort comes at a time when Kenya’s coffee production has been in decline, currently at around 45,000 tonnes per year, which risks reducing the country’s visibility among global buyers.
It is a common agricultural pattern for production to expand when prices reach record highs, a cycle that often sows the seeds for the next glut. Recent record prices support the current momentum, and it remains to be seen if it will be sustained.
It also raises a critical question: how will producers remain competitive should global prices drop? Sustaining quality requires long-term investment to manage climate risks such as floods, heat waves, and drought, while also absorbing rising input costs.
The price of the Arabica variety of coffee is based on the New York Coffee market, a global supply-and-demand-driven pricing that gives little weightage to conditions in Kenya or the challenges producers face in growing the country’s renowned coffee. This means there will be periods when prices can be even lower than the cost of production.
Within the coffee buying space, there are discerning specialty buyers who seek high-quality coffee that is consistent, reliable, and delivered as contracted to destination warehouses, with sufficient volumes available. This segment typically operates on a fixed-price model that takes into account the cost of production and provides a fair margin for producers.
Both pathways offer market access. One is a faster route with quicker returns, while the other is a slower, longer, and more demanding path, but ultimately a more rewarding one. Each producer has a choice.
Scaling this rigour across the country’s coffee sector, where smallholders account for approximately 70 percent of production volume, represents the central challenge.
It is beneficial for producers to know the quality and strengths of their coffee before offering it to the market for sale. This helps them arrive at realistic and fair price expectations. Even basic pan roasting and normal grinding at home, without expensive lab-grade equipment, is better than nothing.
The inability of many farmers to taste their own coffee has long been a critical bottleneck. It also requires a willingness to accept lower prices for coffees that fail to meet established standards, even when financial pressures encourage the sale of marginal lots.
Producers should not expect every buyer to compliment them about great coffee. However, if there are defects, they are likely to receive prompt feedback. This is similar to situations where producers are advised to sell quickly because the market is expected to decline.
Rarely does one hear advice to “hold your coffee, prices are going up.” Such realities are typical of agricultural commodity markets. Producers often have a bias toward their produce, given the time, effort, and investment involved, and it is therefore seen as the “best quality.”
This is where events such as the Kenya National Taste of Harvest cupping competitions come in to provide validation at a national level. These competitions function as industry barometers, signalling which production methods, processing techniques, and quality control measures deliver the best outcomes.
Notably, the winning coffees at the event came from regular production rather than experimental lots, reinforcing the importance of consistency at scale.
Collaboration with larger, established estates also offers smallholders the opportunity to learn and adopt proven systems. Estates can also learn from smallholder resilience and innovation.
This calls for a unified approach that encourages estates to open their doors, allowing smallholders to understand the processes that maintain quality and, where possible, benefit from access to the machinery and infrastructure held by their larger counterparts.
Kenya’s coffee future will depend on maintaining market-visible volumes and how many producers choose to make quality and reliability their defining characteristics.
There is also a growing need for operators to adhere to environmental, social, and agricultural standards. The industry must also prioritise worker welfare through fair wages and safe working conditions.
The writer is CEO of Tatu Coffee Estates
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