Kenya’s economic growth always peaks in the penultimate year of the general election calendar, and all indications are that 2026 will follow this cycle.
As per the World Bank estimates, Kenya’s economy expanded by between 4.5 percent and 5 percent in 2025, setting the base for an even stronger growth in 2026.
Investment remains the engine of economic growth, linking innovation and enterprise with capital to drive productivity, job creation and poverty reduction. A conducive investment climate facilitates trade expansion, supports productivity across the economy, backs entrepreneurs and handholds small and medium enterprises to support their growth.
Kenya’s current economic growth is mainly driven by gains in agriculture, ICT, finance and real estate sectors. Further, the World Bank projects a 4.9 percent average growth between 2025 and 2027, indicating fairly robust economic activity during the period.
Most noteworthy of this economic expansion is the stability of the Kenyan shilling against major international currencies, supported by a deliberate macro-economic policy management and reliable diaspora inflows of hard forex remittances.
National Budget pressures remain a concern, with limited headroom for new taxation and the widening fiscal deficit that stands at 5.9 percent of GDP, pointing to need for more creative economic management policies.
Kenya has been and remains an African investment hub, underpinned by a skilled and youthful population and well-developed infrastructure, including a modern port and relatively extensive road network.
Negotiated trade agreements with the US, the European Union, the UK, and the UAE; along with the high-potential African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), point to even bigger opportunities.
From a capital markets perspective, the 2026 outlook presents an excellent opportunity for long-term investors. As macroeconomic stability improves, inflation moderates and fiscal consolidation advances, Kenya is well positioned to attract patient capital seeking yield, diversification and real-asset-backed growth.
Investors are increasingly focused on assets with resilient cash flows, export exposure and strong inflation-hedging features.
Against this backdrop, we at Centum, for example, see the most scalable opportunities in export-oriented manufacturing and globally-traded services rather than purely domestic demand.
This approach is being advanced through the Two Rivers Investment and Financial Innovation Centre Special Economic Zone and the 2,000-acre Vipingo Special Economic Zone, both designed as enterprise and export platforms rather than traditional land developments.
Special Economic Zones (SEZs) provide a practical pathway for shifting Kenya towards a manufacturing- and services-led economy, supported by targeted fiscal incentives and efficient regulatory facilitation.
The SEZ model provides a practical blueprint for shifting Kenya from a predominantly raw-materials exporting economy to one that is manufacturing- and services-led.
By offering targeted fiscal incentives such as tax exemptions, duty relief, and allowances for capital expenditure, Kenya can position itself as a competitive production and services hub for Africa and beyond.
By building globally competitive enterprise ecosystems on our developments, we are creating income-generating assets that can be recycled through capital markets to unlock further growth.
Dr James Mworia is the Chief Executive Officer, Centum Investment Company PLC
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