China’s duty-free access offers growth path as Agoa waivers

The future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) is far from certain. Discussions around its renewal remain stalled amid shifting US political priorities, rising economic protectionism, and changing global trade dynamics. 

This uncertainty highlights a broader concern: African countries may no longer be able to rely on external trade preferences as a foundation for their development strategies.

Rather than viewing this moment as a crisis, it could serve as an opportunity to shift focus toward self-reliance, regional integration, and expanded South-South cooperation.

On June 12, 2025, China announced it would extend duty-free market access to 53 African countries, eliminating tariffs on 98 percent of taxable products originating from these nations.

The arrangement applies to both least-developed and middle-income countries, making it one of the most extensive preferential trade offers Africa has received from a major global economy.

The announcement comes just weeks before Agoa’s scheduled expiry in September, unless the US Congress intervenes. While bipartisan support exists in principle for its renewal, legislative delays in Washington have left African governments and exporters uncertain about continued access to US markets. In this context, China’s decision appears strategic as well as timely.

Unlike Agoa, which requires compliance with eligibility conditions—such as governance standards and human rights performance—China’s scheme is broader and less conditional. This makes it more accessible to countries that have previously faced Agoa suspensions, including Ethiopia and Mali.

Agoa’s benefits have traditionally focused on a limited set of sectors, particularly apparel from countries such as Kenya, Ethiopia, and Lesotho.

In contrast, China’s offer covers a wider range of goods, including processed agricultural products, manufactured items, and intermediate goods. This could support African efforts toward value addition and industrialisation—long-held but unevenly realised goals across the continent.

Read: Kenya’s US market access options if the Agoa renewal bid fails

China’s market size is also a significant factor. With more than 1.4 billion consumers and increasing demand for items such as organic foods and specialised textiles, African producers could find opportunities—provided they meet Chinese import standards and navigate complex logistics and compliance systems.

While Agoa is shaped by US consumption trends, China’s initiative aligns more closely with demand patterns emerging in Asia and other fast-growing markets.

However, China’s motivations are not solely developmental. Africa’s trade deficit with China exceeded $60 billion in 2024. By removing tariffs, China may also be seeking to ease that imbalance and strengthen its position as a key trade and development partner.

The move aligns with its broader foreign policy priorities, including the Belt and Road Initiative and the Global Development Initiative, which focus on infrastructure, trade facilitation, and connectivity.

For African countries, the opportunity comes with responsibilities and risks. Market access is only the first step. To benefit fully, governments and private sectors must invest in logistics, product quality, certification, and export readiness.

China has pledged support in some of these areas—particularly for least-developed countries—through training programmes and access to platforms such as the China International Import Expo. Nonetheless, implementation will require local effort and coordination.

One concern is overdependence. Relying heavily on one market—whether the US or China—can expose economies to external shocks. A more resilient approach would involve accessing both Western and Eastern markets while using such preferences to build competitive domestic industries and strengthen economic sovereignty.

China’s engagement also reflects a different diplomatic style. While US delegations often stress governance and reform, China tends to focus on infrastructure and trade deliverables. This contrast has drawn comment from African leaders. As one senior official remarked in a regional forum, “When the Chinese visit, we get a train station. When the Americans visit, we get a speech.”

The message to Washington is implicit but firm: unless the US renews and modernises Agoa, African countries may increasingly look elsewhere.

The continent is not waiting passively for trade preferences—it is actively shaping its partnerships based on what supports its long-term goals.

As Agoa’s future remains uncertain, China’s offer presents African countries with a potential alternative. But whether this becomes a lasting advantage depends on the extent to which nations can leverage the opportunity to diversify trade, upgrade infrastructure, and build stronger, more independent economies.

The writer is a Journalist and Communication consultant