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Peak power output capacity falls by 119.1MW on thermal plant closures
Injection of new power plants for clean energy was expected to plug the gap created by the exit of the thermal plants and avert a significant drop in the local production of electricity.
Kenya’s maximum electricity generation under ideal conditions (installed capacity) has shrunk by 119.1 megawatts in three years, amid heightened efforts to reduce the use of dirty thermal power, even as it grapples with a power generation crisis.
An analysis of the official data shows that installed capacity stood at 3,192 megawatts as of June 2025, compared to 3,199.9 megawatts a year earlier and 3,311.10 megawatts in June 2023, with the decline attributed to the retirement of thermal power plants.
But while the exit of the dirty and costly thermal plants is timely, failure to plug in new plants amid a freeze on new power purchase agreements has left Kenya exposed in the wake of a fast-rising demand for power.
Peak demand for electricity jumped by 290.06 megawatts to 2,439.06 megawatts as of December 2025 from 2,149 megawatts in June 2023, leaving insufficient reserves to ensure the stable operation of the national grid.
This has left Kenya to increasingly rely on imports from Ethiopia and Uganda to avoid widespread power rationing when demand outstrips supply.
“Kenya will be positioned as a net electricity importer if these two factors (fall in installed capacity and a fast-growing consumption) are not abetted by adequate and timely pipeline energy projects in the medium and long term,” the Energy ministry recently warned.
The data shows that installed capacity for thermal plants fell from 681.9 megawatts in June 2023 to 564.8 megawatts in June last year due to the retirement of the Kipevu 1 and Garissa Thermal plants.
Installed capacity of solar also declined from 212.6 megawatts to 210.3 megawatts, while that for wind fell from 436.1 megawatts to 435.5 megawatts over the same period.
The 119.1-megawatt decline in installed capacity is the equivalent of three wind power plants, bar the 310-megawatt Lake Turkana Wind Power, which is currently linked to the national grid.
A big installed capacity is critical in ensuring a reliable supply of power by providing enough buffers to cover maintenance, unexpected outages and variability in wind and solar generation.
Injection of new power plants for clean energy was expected to plug the gap created by the exit of the thermal plants and avert a significant drop in the local production of electricity.
But a freeze on new PPAs, that had been in place since 2018 denied Kenya Power this chance, forcing the utility to turn to hydropower from Ethiopia and Uganda to shore up the supply and meet a fast-rising demand.
Kenya Power signed a 25-year PPA to import 200MW electricity from Ethiopia from 2022. The utility is also pushing for a similar deal with Uganda to ship up to 100MW.
The ban was lifted in November last year, paving the way for Kenya Power to resume negotiations with investors keen to build power plants in the country.
