Kenya is projecting a widening gap between the number of healthcare professionals and what the population needs over the next five years as medics continue to migrate in search of better pay, casting doubt on the country’s ambition to achieve universal health coverage (UHC).
Government data shows that between 2026 and 2031, the healthcare workforce shortage could grow by 49 percent, from 76,920 to 114,352. At that point, only 70.3 percent of the required 385,101 professionals will be available.
Currently, the country needs 311,060 healthcare workers but can only supply 234,140, meeting 75.3 percent of demand and leaving 76,920 positions unfilled. By 2035, coverage could fall further to 60.2 percent, meaning four in every 10 positions would remain vacant.
This shortfall is being driven by a mismatch in growth rates: healthcare workforce demand is rising by 4.7 percent annually, while supply is growing at just 3.4 percent.
Without urgent intervention, the proportion of filled positions is expected to drop below the 70 percent threshold that experts consider critical for meaningful progress towards UHC.
“Currently, the national health workforce meets only about three-quarters of the estimated need. The gap between supply and demand for healthcare professionals is projected to widen if strategic interventions are not implemented,” said Director-General for Health Patrick Amoth.
He noted a persistent paradox in the sector, where trained professionals remain unemployed or underemployed even as facilities face acute staffing shortages.
The most severe deficit is expected among community health nurses, with a projected shortfall of 61,921 by 2031, more than half of the total gap.
Doctor availability will also remain critically low, with fewer than one in four required physicians in place, translating to a shortage of 39,117. A similar pattern is expected among surgeons and dental surgeons, where only about a quarter of required specialists will be available.
Specialists supply
In contrast, some cadres are projected to be oversupplied. The number of lung and skin clinical officers is expected to exceed demand nearly twelvefold, while clinical dieticians, nutritionists and pharmaceutical technologists will also be produced in excess.
Even more striking, clinical pharmacists and orthopaedic trauma technologists show no projected supply at all, pointing to deep structural imbalances in training and workforce planning.
According to the proposed healthcare professionals’ policy, migration remains a key driver of these shortages. The Health Labour Market Analysis (HLMA) found that 64.6 percent of workers in level four facilities intend to leave the country.
“Around 4,000 doctors and nurses leave Kenya every year, hitting the system where it hurts most. Those leaving are often the most experienced, weakening the system and leaving younger staff without mentorship,” said Dr Ouma Oluga, Principal Secretary for Medical Services.
The exodus is driven by higher pay, better working conditions, access to advanced training and technology, and improved living standards abroad.
Pharmaceutical technologists show the highest willingness to migrate, at 79 percent, while nurses and medical officers are the least likely to leave, though still significant at 58 percent.
The US remains the top destination for Kenyan health workers, followed by Namibia, Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom.
Kenya already ranks among the leading African sources of staff for the UK’s National Health Service, placing seventh on the continent and 30th globally.
Corrective policy intervention
Health Cabinet Secretary Aden Duale acknowledged the structural nature of the crisis, noting that Kenya has lacked a comprehensive policy to guide the training and management of healthcare professionals since independence.
“This will ensure we train the right number of healthcare workers with the right skills,” said Mr Duale, referring to the proposed Kenya Healthcare Professionals’ Policy 2026.
However, addressing the crisis will require significantly higher investment in the health sector.
Chronic funding shortfall
Total health spending has hovered between four and five percent of GDP in recent years. While combined national and county allocations have risen from Sh78 billion in the 2013/14 financial year to Sh280 billion in 2023/24, this remains well below the 15 percent target set under the Abuja Declaration.
Health spending as a share of government expenditure rose from 5.5 percent in 2013/14 to a peak of 11.1 percent in 2020/21, before declining to 9.7 percent in 2023/24.
At the county level, more than 75 percent of recurrent health budgets is absorbed by salaries, leaving limited resources for medical supplies, training, equipment maintenance and community outreach.
The HLMA estimates that training the additional health workers required by 2031 will cost Sh109.2 billion. Meanwhile, the wage bill needed to meet demand could rise to Sh860.6 billion, up from the current Sh521.3 billion—a 65 percent increase.
