The Singapore debate featured in many of my holiday conversations. Some folks are cautiously optimistic. Others worry about hurdles that could keep us from this vision.
Of course, nay-sayers insist that it is not possible to achieve high income status any time, in the this or next generation. They blame everything from leadership to corruption and weak institutions. Others take the typology quite literally, as though it would be cut and paste. And then as the break progressed, I heard an interesting variant.
We may very well achieve high income status, but inequality will have widened, and regional disparities increased. That sent me digging around for data, to discern the trends in inequality and regional disparities, and government responses to it over the last 30 years.
In 1992, the world marked the highest inequality level with the GINI coefficient (a measure of inequality, with 0 being perfect equality) reaching .569. It remained high (.47 in 2005/6), gradually declining to a low of .362 in 2020. In part from Covid-19 effects, it rose to .389 by 2022. This compares to Brazil (.506 in 2024), Botswana (.407 in 2019), and Morocco (.405 in 2022). Mauritius has done better at .33 in 2023.
Civil Society worries that it will stabilise at high levels of inequality. The ongoing Kenya Integrated Household Survey will provide most current data by June 2026.
Inclusive growth is the holy grail. But even with it, all economies have significant pockets of inequality. Most commentators are surprised the structure of the economy changes, and that business indeed close and capital is redeployed.
Many get angry that when industries close, other businesses do not necessarily emerge to take their place. You may have seen a recent slide titled “Kenya’s fallen industries” circulating on social media. Governments world-over struggle with income redistribution.
At the 2022 General Election, the main competing formations paid a lot of attention to social protection, as a response to inequality. The policy proposals included enhanced transfers for the most vulnerable, improved health financing, and better financial inclusion.
The promises were building on the ongoing Inua Jamii programme. Starting in 2004, the cash transfer programmes for orphans, vulnerable children and older persons have gradually expanded.
In 2010 these were extended to persons with severe disabilities, then to universal senior Kenyans over 70 years in 2018. By late 2025, the number of beneficiaries had increased to 1.8 million, with monthly rather than by-monthly payments, via mobile platforms.
While there is no uniform strategy of how, the idea of a universal basic income (UBI), is popular among economists. Not surprising, Kenya has been at the forefront of testing this idea. One way to figure out if a policy idea can work, or isolate its impacts, is the randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Kenya has been a global hub for such studies since 2000, some directly leading to the 2019 Nobel Prize in Economics.
The recipients - Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo (both professors at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and Michael Kremer, a professor at Harvard at the time), - were recognised for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty.
They pioneered the use of RCTs to test the effectiveness of specific policy interventions in real-world settings. They demonstrated for instance, that poor families are highly price-sensitive to preventive healthcare.
In agriculture they found that small, timed discounts helped farmers overcome behavioural barriers and increase the use of fertilisers.
Other studies revealed that while microcredit helps some existing small businesses, it does not necessarily lead to broad increases in household consumption or overall well-being.
Another famous RCT on unconditional cash transfers (2011–2025), found that one-time cash transfers ($1,000) had a large (2.5x) economic multiplier for the local economy and a 48 percent reduction in infant mortality among recipient families.
In a study (School-Based Deworming (2004–2020)), that made them famous, Michael Kremer and Ted Miguel found that mass deworming in Western Kenya schools increased school participation by 25 percent, led to 13 percent, higher earnings and 14 percent higher consumption for those treated as children, measured 20 years later.
The ongoing Universal Basic Income trial in Siaya and Bomet is most promising. One of the world's largest long-term trials, it is currently testing the effects of a guaranteed monthly income on welfare, labour supply, and village-level economic dynamics.
While nay-sayers discuss individual leaders, the republic, in characteristic fashion, marches forward.
Ndiritu Muriithi is an economist and partner at Ecocapp Capital.
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