Building deeper: Why patient capital is Africa’s strategic imperative

There is a proverb often shared across our continent: “However long the night, the dawn will break.”

But there is a quieter truth beneath it—those who prepare for the night weather it better than those who simply wait for dawn. Today, Africa finds itself in another long night.

The ongoing Iran crisis and disruption through the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints—has triggered one of the largest energy supply shocks in modern history.

The strait normally carries roughly 20 percent of global oil supply and nearly 25 percent of global seaborne oil trade. Around 80 percent of these flows are destined for Asian markets, with China, India, Japan and South Korea among the largest importers.

In recent weeks, oil prices have surged past $110 per barrel, with peaks reaching as high as $126 during the height of the disruption. For Africa, this is not just a geopolitical event. It is a direct economic shock.

Across the continent, rising oil prices are feeding into transport costs, food inflation, and currency pressures.

In Kenya, the Central Bank projects inflation could rise to 6.2 percent in the coming months—above its 5 percent midpoint target—driven largely by higher fuel prices.

We are already seeing second-order effects. Transport operators are adjusting fares upward, supply chains are tightening and households are absorbing the cost of a crisis they did not create. This is not new. It is a pattern. And that is precisely the point.

What Africa has always needed is patient capital—and this is much clearer today than ever before. Because the challenge before us is not just volatility. It is structural exposure. Over 40 African countries are net oil importers, meaning external shocks translate almost immediately into domestic instability.

When capital is short-term, risk-averse, and priced for quick returns, it retreats at precisely the moment it is most needed. Businesses stall. Investments pause. Growth becomes fragile.

Patient capital does the opposite, it stays. It absorbs shocks, provides continuity, enables businesses to continue investing even when input costs rise and it allows governments and institutions to think beyond the immediate crisis and invest in long-term resilience.

We have seen this model work—decisively—elsewhere. Singapore offers one of the clearest examples. Through Temasek Holdings, which manages over $300 billion in assets, the country has consistently deployed long-term, state-backed capital into strategic sectors—from energy to logistics to technology. During global shocks, these institutions do not withdraw; they stabilize.

Similarly, Canada’s pension funds, including CPP Investments, deploy over $500 billion globally with investment horizons measured in decades. They invest heavily in infrastructure and energy systems, often taking counter-cyclical positions when markets are under stress.

These are not just funds. They are shock absorbers. Closer to home, Kenya’s newly established National Infrastructure Fund (NIF) signals a shift toward this same philosophy.

At its core, the NIF represents an opportunity to move from reactive policy to proactive resilience. Because if oil prices can spike above $110 per barrel due to disruptions thousands of kilometres away, then the real question is not how we respond—but how we reduce our exposure. This is where the NIF becomes critical.

Strategically deployed, it can channel long-term capital into renewable energy, reducing dependence on imported fuel. And if we get this right—if we align institutions like the NIF with a broader ecosystem of long-term, resilient capital—then moments like this will no longer define us.

For the NIF to succeed, it must embody these same principles. Across Africa, the infrastructure financing gap exceeds $100 billion annually.

At the same time, the cost of capital remains among the highest globally. Bridging this gap will require more than traditional financing models. It will require capital that is willing to wait, capital that is comfortable with complexity and one that measures success not just in quarterly returns, but in long-term transformation.

The Iran crisis is a reminder—perhaps a costly one—that Africa cannot afford to build its future on short-term foundations. We cannot control global oil prices. We cannot control geopolitical tensions.

As the proverb reminds us, dawn will come. The question is whether we will have built enough through the night to meet it.

But we can control how we prepare. Patient capital is not a luxury. It is a necessity. And we will be ready.

The writer is Acumen Regional Director, Africa. Email: [email protected]