The global economy stands at a crossroads. With projected growth hovering at a meagre 2.2 percent for 2025 and only slightly improving to 2.4 percent in 2026, the signs are clear: we are entering an era of dangerously slow economic expansion.
While growth technically continues, it is at a pace many economists consider perilously close to stagnation—particularly for emerging economies that depend on strong global demand and capital flows to drive development.
At the same time, the International Labour Organisation warns of a downgrade of up to seven million jobs in 2025, citing heightened geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions as primary causes. These developments are not merely cyclical, they reflect a breakdown in the political consensus that once sustained global prosperity.
Today’s economic headwinds stem largely from deliberate policy choices, not unavoidable economic forces.
At the centre of this storm is US President Donald Trump, whose recent wave of tariffs—imposed just months into his second term—is already upending the fragile post-pandemic recovery.
These tariffs target not just China, but the European Union, Mexico, and even key African trading partners. Cloaked in the language of economic patriotism, these measures aim to “bring jobs back to America,” but in practice, they trigger a global chain reaction of retaliatory policies, investor uncertainty, and rising input costs.
Manufacturers, farmers, and exporters worldwide are feeling the pain—none more so than in Africa, where markets are tightly linked to global supply chains and foreign investment sentiment.
Trump’s tariffs do not operate in isolation—they accelerate a dangerous trend toward economic nationalism. Countries across the world, seeing the US abandon free trade principles, follow suit. Global supply chains, which depend on predictability and open access, are splintering.
In Africa, the effects are immediate and severe. Exporters face higher tariffs, key imports become more expensive, and multinationals delay or cancel investment projects in manufacturing, logistics, and infrastructure.
In economies already burdened by high youth unemployment and fragile fiscal conditions, these disruptions are deeply destabilising.
This is why a return to multilateralism is not merely advisable—it is essential. Trump’s tariff-driven strategy may win short-term headlines at home, but it kills global growth.
The World Trade Organization, long sidelined, must be revitalised to provide dispute resolution and promote fair, rules-based trade. A fragmented world economy serves no one.
Multilateral institutions—including the IMF, World Bank, and ILO—are needed now more than ever to stabilize global markets, support vulnerable economies, and coordinate recovery strategies. If these institutions weaken further, developing economies will be left defenseless in the face of global shocks they did not create.
Consider the human cost of a 7-million-job deficit globally. This is not just a statistic—it represents lost livelihoods, growing poverty, and fraying social cohesion. In Africa, where informal labor markets dominate and youth make up the majority of the population, unemployment on this scale fuels instability and discontent.
The longer countries act in isolation—prioritizing trade barriers and national subsidies over cooperation—the harder it becomes to reverse the damage. Economic growth, innovation, and labor market stability all thrive in open, predictable systems—not in protectionist silos.
What is especially troubling is how unnecessary this damage is. The current slowdown and labor disruptions result from conscious policy decisions: tariffs, export restrictions, and a retreat from cooperation.
Trump’s tariffs, rather than protecting U.S. workers, export economic pain across the globe and threaten the very recovery they claim to secure. When large economies act with disregard for multilateral rules, smaller economies—particularly in the Global South—bear the disproportionate brunt.
Yet despite the gloom, there is a path forward—if governments are willing to lead with bold, coordinated action.
First, restoring trust in multilateral institutions is vital. These platforms were built to ensure fairness, resolve disputes, and protect smaller economies from the whims of geopolitical giants.
Their revitalization is key to stabilizing global trade and rebuilding investor confidence.
Second, global powers—especially the G20—must recommit to rules-based trade. Economic interdependence is not a vulnerability; it is a strength. Modern trade agreements must be reoriented to support equity, climate resilience, and innovation, without discarding the principles of openness and reciprocity.
Third, investment in labor-intensive sectors must be prioritized. Africa, for instance, stands to gain significantly from strategic investments in green energy, healthcare, infrastructure, and digital services. These sectors can drive job creation while fostering inclusive, sustainable growth.
Finally, governments must strengthen inclusive labor policies. Reskilling, formalizing informal economies, and ensuring youth and women are fully integrated into labor markets will be critical for long-term resilience. The answer to a sluggish global economy is not withdrawal—it is innovation, inclusion, and cooperation.
In conclusion, the global slowdown and employment crisis are the consequences of political decisions, not natural inevitabilities. Trump’s tariffs and the global shift toward economic isolation are dragging the world toward prolonged stagnation.
Only by embracing multilateralism, revitalizing global institutions, and investing in inclusive growth can we hope to turn the tide. The time for nationalist economics is over. The time for global cooperation is now.
The writer is a journalist and communications consultant
