When President Mwai Kibaki produced Vision 2030 master plan, it was to envision and implement Kenya’s socio-economic development for the next 30 years, subject to periodic formally endorsed updates. The only shortcoming is this plan was not ring-fenced by a parliamentary instrument, leaving it open to unjustified alterations by successive regimes.
Harmonised long-term development planning enables a country to bridge from one generation to the next, align projects with funding capacity, while allowing managed changes when local and global circumstances change. This is how in 1960-70s Kenya managed socio-economic transition from a colonial state to an economic model that nearly propelled it into an economic tiger.
However, this never materialised as corrupt cartels of 1980-90s squandered public resources, with projects announced by roadsides replacing long-term planning.
Institutionally, long-term economic planning is a key mandate for the Ministry of Economic Planning, which should be independent and detached from the Finance ministry to avoid conflicts.
It should be staffed with the best economic brains.
Various ministries should discuss sector plans with the Planning ministry for integration into a harmonised national long-term plan. This way project relevance, timing, and capacity to fund are discussed and agreed to avoid rushed debts. Long-term planning provides opportunities to synchronise national and county development planning to ensure maximum value from allocated resources.
Further, it is these plans that investors refer to in deciding where to place their capital, while also informing multilateral and bilateral partners where to partner.
The current process of individual ministries negotiating budgets with the Treasury and parliamentary committees is inefficient, and often open to abuse and corruption. Ministries and agencies competing for scarce resources is what creates budgetary crisis and runoff national debts. Development driven by five-year election manifestos often crowds-out critical economic projects, and often results in poor and rushed implementation with wasted resource as previous projects are abandoned.
Kenya needs a new Vision 2050 plan to recast national economic development. Major infrastructure projects, especially the corridors, should be planned and implemented on long-term phased basis.
Development of production sectors—agriculture, livestock, manufacturing, mining, oil production—is a long-term journey that should be sufficiently prioritised and resourced to deliver sector gross domestic products and jobs. Trade should target expansion and protection of local production.
Energy resources development should be synchronised to align with shifting global energy and climate options while ensuring affordability by the economy. Technology capacity building should be flexible enough to accommodate emerging trends.
