How sentiment fuels tech, innovation

This is a great idea for this underappreciated sector. At an estimated 300 billion shillings in annual farm-gate value, the sector is larger than all cash crops. Slaughtering, which is the most basic value addition in this chain, raises the value to about Sh500 billion.

Reflecting after the launch, I began to ponder how Information and Communication Technology (ICT), innovation, and public sentiment might be related. What drives technology adoption?

In project management within economic development, it is clear that we have to move beyond inputs (say, budgets), or even the outputs (such as roads) they produce, to outcomes and impacts. For instance, increases in production may lead to higher incomes and improvements in the quality of life. The latter can only occur when there is a change in behaviour among citizens or project beneficiaries.

I came face to face with this reality quite dramatically at Kimanju in Laikipia North. One and a half years after equipping the surgical theatre at the hospital, no procedures had been undertaken. It turned out that the community was skeptical about the hospital and chose to travel to Nanyuki, even for minor procedures. It required effort on our part to change the health-seeking behaviour of the citizens.

Here is a similar question. Why is sentiment about the economy not turning positive, despite some strong and positive macro-economic indicators? Folks say that they have no money in their pockets, despite low inflation and a stable exchange rate.

Here is the paradox: money in the pocket requires action on the part of citizens to use or leverage the outcomes of government actions.

Transport infrastructure facilitates the movement of goods. That presumes production. With credit as the transmission mechanism, positive macros are expected to support increased production.

Read: Investment forums, sentiment and growth

While real wages declined from 2019 to 2023, some modest recovery is evident in some sectors, though not yet sufficient to recover lost ground.

Worse, growth in credit to the private sector has not recovered, despite efforts by the monetary authority to bring lending rates down. And with sentiment remaining stubbornly pessimistic, the good macros are not yet translating into money in the pockets.

It seems to me then, that Information and Communication Technology (ICT), innovation, and sentiment are related in a non-linear, reciprocal system.

More than a tool, ICT is a foundational enabler of innovation. It transforms business models and operational processes.

Sentiment, once regarded as a soft, qualitative metric, is now quantifiable using ICT-driven tools like Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Big Data analytics. Thus, it is a measurable, critical input that can dictate the success or failure of an innovation or policy.

The cyclical nature is profound: technology drives new forms of innovation, which then generate public sentiment, and this sentiment, in turn, influences future technological adoption and strategic innovation decisions. It is the same in policymaking.

Public sentiment is a dual-natured force, characterised by co-existing curiosity and deep-seated skepticism.

While many customers are excited by the promise of emerging technologies, significant concerns about affordability, privacy, data protection, and emotional well-being create tangible barriers to adoption.

At KRA, we have seen this first-hand with the adoption of eTIMs.

Trust is not a given. Rather, it is a critical asset that must be proactively built. Our efforts to improve collection efficiency by splitting the tax component at the transaction level, and promoting trade across Africa to turn sentiment positive, all suffer from the trust deficit.

But because sentiment analysis can transform consumer emotion from a feeling into actionable, quantifiable data, there is hope. The core challenge for innovators and policymakers is navigating the deep-seated public distrust of tech and government.

That distrust creates systemic barriers to the adoption of even beneficial technologies, regardless of a single product’s positive reception.

To thrive in this dynamic landscape, organisations and their leaders must adopt a “sentiment-first” innovation strategy.

Ndiritu Muriithi is an economist and partner at Ecocapp Capital.  He is also the chairman of KRA and former governor of Laikipia County. Email: [email protected]