China floods Kenya with Sh671bn goods ahead of trade deal

The 16.5 percent year-on-year expansion outpaced Kenya’s overall import growth, with total shipments rising more modestly at 3.27 percent to Sh2.79 trillion last year, according to provisional data collated by Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).

China’s share of Kenya’s import bill has steadily strengthened in recent years, rising to 24.02 percent last year from 21.29 percent in 2024 and 17.57 percent in 2023, underscoring its entrenched role in Kenya’s supply chains.

Read: Kenya’s trade deficit with China widens 17pc

This came in a year when President William Ruto’s administration renewed focus on boosting exports to China under a proposed bilateral tariff- and quota-free trade agreement aimed at narrowing the widening goods trade deficit.

Investments, Trade and Industry Cabinet Secretary Lee Kinyanjui said initial negotiations had been completed, paving the way for Kenyan exporters to access the Chinese market on preferential terms.

“We have finished what you may call the initial discussions, so in the next maybe 30 days we should be able to sign, and our people can export directly to China at zero tariff and zero quota, meaning nobody restricts how much you are able to export,” Mr Kinyanjui said in an interview on Fixing the Nation on February 4, 2026.

The official trade data shows Kenya’s purchases from China are heavily concentrated in construction materials, industrial inputs, and technology equipment — shipments which are closely linked to increased activities in building and construction as well as capital expansion by businesses.

Flat-rolled iron and non-alloy steel products dominated the import basket throughout the year. In the first quarter, Kenya imported Sh6.35 billion worth of steel products, followed by Sh6.18 billion in the second quarter and Sh5.77 billion in the third quarter.

Electronics and telecommunications equipment also featured at the top of the list. Printed circuits accounted for Sh4.78 billion in the first quarter, while telephone and data transmission apparatus ranked among the top imports in the second and third quarters at Sh4.38 billion and Sh3.97 billion, respectively.

Heavy equipment purchases pointed to sustained capital investment. Crushing and grinding machinery topped third-quarter imports at Sh7.19 billion, while unassembled road tractors for semi-trailers appeared among the leading categories earlier in 2025.

Historical trade data show similar patterns, with Kenya’s top purchases from China in 2024 consisting of Sh23.16 billion worth of flat-rolled steel products, Sh17.08 billion in railway and tramway vans and wagons, and Sh13.26 billion in telecommunications equipment.

In 2023, leading imports featured flat-rolled steel valued at Sh21.49 billion and telecom apparatus at Sh13.94 billion. In 2022, Kenya imported Sh15.94 billion worth of steel products alongside Sh7.64 billion in telecommunications equipment.

The looming bilateral deal, whose finer details remain confidential, is expected to mark a significant step toward removing long-standing inequities in trade flows between Kenya and China.

President William Ruto has repeatedly framed the agreement as a breakthrough for Kenya’s agricultural exporters following high-level discussions during his State visit to China in April 2025.

“We have concluded the high-level conversations with China. They have agreed to a reciprocal arrangement between Kenya and China…to remove all the tariffs on our tea, coffee, avocado, and all other agricultural exports,” Dr Ruto told business leaders in Nairobi on August 6.

“That I think is a major breakthrough for us. We are now finalizing the bilateral instruments so that… we should be able to take advantage of that huge market.”

KNBS data shows the trade gap continues to widen as imports from China grow faster than Kenya’s exports.

Latest KNBS figures for the nine months through September 2025, for example, show the goods trade deficit with China widened by 16.65 percent to Sh475.61 billion from Sh407.70 billion in the same period a year earlier.

Kenya’s leading exports to China in 2025 included copper waste and scrap, tea, coffee, and manganese ores, the KNBS data shows.

Copper scrap generated Sh1.66 billion in the first quarter and Sh1.68 billion in the second quarter before easing to Sh1.26 billion in the third quarter.

Read: Copper scrap single largest Kenya’s export to China

Tea exports were among the top earners, bringing in Sh657.87 million in the first quarter, Sh484.39 million in the second quarter, and Sh422.86 million in the third quarter. Coffee shipments featured in the second quarter at Sh685.44 million, while manganese ores added Sh826.40 million in the third quarter.

Annual trends paint similar patterns, with top exports to China in 2024 comprising the now depleted titanium ores valued at Sh4.25 billion, copper waste and scrap at Sh3.24 billion, and tea at Sh2.78 billion. Titanium ores dominated exports in both 2023 and 2022 at Sh9.90 billion and Sh12.06 billion, respectively.

Mr Kinyanjui has argued that removing tariffs could help reverse the trend by improving the competitiveness of Kenyan products in the Chinese market.

“If we were to plug into just one percent of that market for our coffee or tea, it would completely change the lives of Kenyans,” he said in August.

“Some of our exporters have been forced to pay up to 10 percent duty to China, while our neighbouring countries pay zero because they are low-income. Others even export through Rwanda to avoid the tariff. With the removal of that, we can now export directly to China, and that will be a landmark deal.”

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