NCBA Group shareholders are set for gains of up to 20.3 percent as the window of selling their holdings to South Africa’s Nedbank Group opens while the stock is still trading below the offer value on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE).
The offer for investors to sell their shares to Nedbank opened on Thursday, with NCBA stock closing on Friday at Sh87.25, below the Sh100 to Sh105 range the South African lender is offering. Nedbank has offered to buy a 66 percent stake in NCBA.
Those to be paid in cash have been offered a price of Sh105 per share, meaning that they have a chance to book an extra Sh17.75 per share, giving them a 20.3 percent gain. The gain is more than the 6.3 percent that the NCBA share has added since January.
Despite the premium on the Nedbank offer, some shareholders have continued to offload their holdings at the current prices ahead of the closure of the offer on July 10, 2026.
For instance, in the 10 trading days to May 29, NCBA recorded a total traded volume of 4.34 million shares, currently valued at about Sh378.94 million, translating to an average of 434,320 shares per session, according to NSE data.
However, investors who bought the stock around mid-October last year, when it was trading below Sh70, are still sitting on gains of about Sh17 at current prices.
From October 14, 2025, when Bloomberg reported that South Africa’s Standard Bank Group was exploring an acquisition of NCBA through its local unit Stanbic Holdings, the share began to rally. It rose from Sh69.50 on October 13 to Sh96.25 by October 22 as traders priced in the buyout speculation.
The momentum on NCBA shares continued after the January 21 announcement of Nedbank’s offer, with the stock hitting a record Sh98.25 the following day before easing to below Sh90 in early April.
Nedbank submitted its cash-and-stock offer on January 21, 2026, to acquire 1.087 billion NCBA shares, with those accepting its deal converting most of their holdings into shares of the South African firm, which is listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.
The deal will be through a cash buyout for investors holding up to 7,519 shares, while those with larger holdings —sufficient to secure at least 200 Nedbank shares—will receive cash and stock to become shareholders in the South African bank.
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Nedbank is ready to spend up to Sh31.6 billion in the cash component of the deal, creating more room to pay investors who will not be able to take up shares in the South African firm.
The multinational plans to issue a maximum of 43.8 million of its shares to NCBA shareholders who will accept its offer. NCBA owners may apply to sell more shares to Nedbank in case there is under-subscription, with up to 75 percent of the additional shares being accepted.
NCBA will help Nedbank diversify its business, which currently comprises operations in six southern African markets. The Kenyan banking multinational is a strong player in the East African market, where its digital credit services reach millions of customers.
Major shareholders of NCBA bought an additional 449,509 shares in the bank for Sh38.8 million before South Africa’s Nedbank Group made an offer to acquire the 66 percent stake in the firm. The share purchases started on December 4, 2025, and terminated on the eve of Nedbank’s offer.
The shares were purchased at an average price of Sh86.45, placing the investors in a position to book substantial gains from selling to Nedbank.
The NCBA circular to shareholders said the closing date may be extended with the approval of the Capital Markets Authority. The lender’s Managing Director, John Gachora, said recently that the transaction is progressing according to plan.
“The proposed transaction with Nedbank Group Limited continues to progress in line with plan, with key deal milestones currently on track and proceeding as anticipated,” said Mr Gachora.
NCBA Group’s net profit for the three months ended March 2026 rose by 8.8 percent to Sh5.96 billion, helped by a rise in interest and non-interest income.
The growth in net earnings was from Sh5.48 billion posted in the previous similar quarter and came on the back of net interest income growing by 22 percent to Sh12.16 billion from Sh9.97 billion.
The review period saw NCBA’s non-interest income rise by 6.3 percent to Sh7.83 billion, taking the operating income to Sh19.99 billion from Sh17.33 billion.
The lender held its annual general meeting last week, Tuesday, with investors approving the payment of a final dividend of Sh4.60 per share to shareholders who were on its register at the end of April 30.
The final payout was in addition to an interim distribution of Sh2.50 per share made last October.
